The pokies, keno and lottery are all games of chance. You might still feel there are ways that you can improve your chances of winning despite the outcomes for each activity being random.
You might like to pick your own numbers on a lottery ticket even if this does not improve the odds of winning compared to randomly selected numbers. It is a normal human reaction to try and feel in control of things when dealing with a random outcome.
This might be harmless in the case of the occasional lottery ticket, but if you use similar ways of thinking when gambling on the pokies, you can be at higher risk of experiencing harm.
The key thing to remember is that for games of chance, nothing can change the odds of you winning, either in the short term or long term. Whether or not you win playing a game of chance is based solely on the randomly drawn numbers generated by the machine’s computer.
For more information about how gambling works, you can visit Types of Gambling and The House Edge.
If you need information or help with your gambling visit Get Help.
“Machines run hot and cold. You’ve gotta move around.”
Behind the colourful symbols and catchy sounds, pokies are based on a random number generator.
Sometimes, the random outcomes that the pokies produce can make it seem like a machine a “hot” streak of wins.
But every spin on the pokies is random and the chances of a win are exactly the same for every spin.
A streak of wins makes no difference to your chances of winning on the next spin.
In the same way, a streak of losses makes no difference to when a machine will deliver a win.
Moving to a “hot” machine or leaving a “cold” machine will not improve your chances of winning. The belief that a hot streak will continue, or a cold streak must be due to end, is known as the Gamblers Fallacy.
“Just think positive.”
Thinking positively is a healthy way to approach a lot of things in life.
However, when it comes to gambling, it doesn’t make a difference to your chance of winning.
Research shows that thinking positively about your chances to win on the pokies often comes from misunderstandings about how they work. And misunderstandings about how pokies work can increase your risk of gambling harm.
For more information about how gambling works, you can visit Types of Gambling and The House Edge.
“I deserve a big win.”
When gambling on the pokies, you might feel like the machine owes you a win if you’ve put in a lot of money or been on a losing streak.
People will sometimes think of pokies as people as a way to feel a bit more in control.
This can make people feel that pokies should behave like people, like understanding how much a gambler needs or deserves a win.
But every spin on the pokies is random and the chances of a win are exactly the same for every spin.
You might also feel like you deserve a win if your winnings are lower than the advertised Return to Player (RTP).
RTP is calculated as an average over the machine’s game cycle, which can take years.
Machines are not required to provide the RTP for each gambling session.
“Gambers aren't quitters.”
As you put more time and money into gambling, it might make it feel harder to quit.
This is known as the “sunk cost fallacy”.
This means you find it harder to stop a single session of gambling, or it could be harder to stop or reduce your overall level of gambling.
Sometimes people will keep gambling to try and win back or “chase” their losses, but pokies are designed to return less money than is put into them.
So while you might have some wins, over time, chasing losses will lead to more losses.
This can be especially risky on the pokies because of how fast further losses can add up.
Stopping gambling can be hard but information and help is free, confidential and available.
“I get a feeling.”
I’m a lucky person
If you think of yourself as a lucky person, it might be worth looking at whether this changes how you gamble.
People who think their luck affects their chances of winning when gambling are also more likely to spend more, and people at higher risk of gambling harm are more likely to think of themselves as lucky when compared to other gamblers.
I’m feeling lucky today
Feeling lucky or confident at a certain moment can also trigger an urge to gamble.
People who have sought help for gambling have reported that feeling lucky or confident led them to gamble.
“I look for the signs.”
Sometimes our brains can make us think that coincidences are proof of luck or that superstitions can work.
People are normally better at remembering wins more than losses on pokies. You might have used one machine multiple times without winning, but the times you won create a stronger memory.
When you take a step back and think about it, there is no way that wearing lucky socks can change the random outcomes on the pokies.
Still, people can stick with a superstition without fully believing it. This can still become an issue if your brain starts connecting these signs or superstitions with gambling.
You might end up thinking about gambling or feel an urge to gamble when doing an unrelated activity linked to the superstition.
“My luck will change and I'll win back the money I've lost.”
Pokies can make it seem like your luck will change.
“Near misses” are when machines show the symbols that can give you a large payout, but they are just out of your line.
This can make you feel close to a win.
But, the result of your spin is determined by a random number generator when you press the button.
The spinning reels are just for show and the higher value symbols are spread unevenly across these randomly generated reels so it looks like you are close to a win.
“I've got a system.”
The outcome of games of chance, particularly lotteries and poker machines, is completely random: You cannot influence it, regardless of what you do. For lotteries, this means that betting the same numbers every week won’t help you win any more than betting different numbers will. See also, Your Odds
Most people in Tasmania who develop gambling problems do so on poker machines. Some people play two machines at the same time. Sure, they may win more often, but they will also lose more often, and lose more over time.
There is no system that can beat the pokies. The house edge is too high. The same goes for people who “double up” their bets. When they win they will win more, but the house edge makes it certain that over time, they will lose.
Stories abound about people who make it rich with “systems”. You’ve probably heard of wealthy punters who “play the odds” on horse racing, wagering with different bookmakers. This may be a system, but it’s one that isn’t available to most gamblers. Only people with unusual mathematical skills, vast reserves of cash, and lots of time to spend studying the market for small windows of advantage across a wide range of potential opportunities might make use of such a ‘system’.
“Winners are grinners.”
People tend to remember their gambling wins and forget their losses.
To get a better idea of how much you have been spending on gambling, you can try things like:
- only gambling with a set amount over a session and not taking out any more money
- setting a time limit for your gambling
- setting limits on gambling apps and tracking your activity statements.
Pokies are designed so that wins are unpredictable because it is a normal human reaction to keep trying for wins when they are random and not guaranteed.
Pokies can also keep you betting by making you feel like you are winning when you are really losing.
When you play multiple lines, machines still play winning sounds and graphics for wins that are less than the amount of money that you had bet.
You can’t win in the long run because the pokies have a house edge.